Observing from the edges, where small signals in technology, business, and culture point to the futures taking shape.
Featured Research Notes
January 29, 2026
Executive Summary The rapid growth of generative AI has led the market, over the past two years, to focus on memory supply and storage capacity. As AI systems move decisively into an inference-driven phase, however, the fundamental bottlenecks facing infrastructure are beginning to shift. In inference environments, system costs are no longer determined primarily by model size or total data volume. Instead, they are shaped by how contextual states persist during computation. When large volumes
October 16, 2025
Executive Summary NVIDIA’s Rubin platform may look like a routine GPU upgrade, but its impact extends far beyond chip performance. By redesigning the internal architecture of AI servers, with a larger motherboard, liquid cooling as a core feature, and a modular dual-layer PCBA, Rubin fundamentally reshapes the value distribution within the supply chain. PCB and materials suppliers gain new momentum from increased complexity and higher technical requirements. Liquid cooling vendors and metal processing partners become
Observing from the edges, where small signals in technology, business, and culture point to the futures taking shape.
Featured Research Notes
January 29, 2026
Executive Summary The rapid growth of generative AI has led the market, over the past two years, to focus on memory supply and storage capacity. As AI systems move decisively into an inference-driven phase, however, the fundamental bottlenecks facing infrastructure are beginning to shift. In inference environments, system costs are no longer determined primarily by model size or total data volume. Instead, they are shaped by how contextual states persist during computation. When large volumes
October 16, 2025
Executive Summary NVIDIA’s Rubin platform may look like a routine GPU upgrade, but its impact extends far beyond chip performance. By redesigning the internal architecture of AI servers, with a larger motherboard, liquid cooling as a core feature, and a modular dual-layer PCBA, Rubin fundamentally reshapes the value distribution within the supply chain. PCB and materials suppliers gain new momentum from increased complexity and higher technical requirements. Liquid cooling vendors and metal processing partners become
Latest Research Notes
April 16, 2026
AI has forced me to rethink not only how I read companies, but also how I read markets. What began as industry analysis gradually led me back to skills I once used as a financial analyst. This essay is a reflection on why that happened. I never expected that one day I would write an essay like this. For me, industry analysis has always had a certain kind of
April 14, 2026
Executive Summary The AI compute market is becoming increasingly diverse. Large cloud providers continue to push forward with in-house ASIC and XPU development, and the number of alternatives to NVIDIA keeps growing. In theory, new AI demand should become more evenly distributed across different architectures, rather than continuing to concentrate in the NVIDIA ecosystem. But when several recent signals are viewed together, the key question may not simply be who has compute. It may be
April 13, 2026
Key Events of the Week: What Happened In the first week of April 2026, the most important thing in the U.S. technology sector was not simply the continued flow of AI related developments. It was that the market began to read several developments together with greater clarity, even though they had initially seemed unrelated. These shifts included the long term buildout of AI infrastructure, cloud platforms responding to questions about investment returns, a redistribution of
April 5, 2026
Key Events of the Week: What Happened In the fifth week of March 2026, the most notable development in the US technology sector was not that the AI story changed direction. It was that the real world conditions needed to sustain that story became easier to recognize. These conditions include whether products can be used reliably, which platforms can control the point of entry, how companies are refocusing resources, whether infrastructure can support the pace
April 1, 2026
Executive Summary A recent remark by Groq founder Jonathan Ross raises an important question. If models begin to improve the quality of their own learning signals, then the AI growth logic we have become familiar with may no longer follow the same path of diminishing returns. This article does not ask whether Ross’s claim should be accepted at face value. It asks whether the idea behind it is already supported by a set of meaningful
March 30, 2026
Key Events of the Week: What Happened In the fourth week of March 2026, several developments in the US technology sector were worth viewing together. These events came from different areas, including AI infrastructure, platform entry points, enterprise software, organizational adjustment, supply chain bottlenecks, and policy governance. They were not identical in nature, yet together they pointed to a clearer picture. The AI industry continues to move forward, but the market is gradually shifting away
Latest Research Notes
April 16, 2026
AI has forced me to rethink not only how I read companies, but also how I read markets. What began as industry analysis gradually led me back to skills I once used as a financial analyst. This essay is a reflection on why that happened. I never expected that one day I would write an essay like this. For me, industry analysis has always had a certain kind of
April 14, 2026
Executive Summary The AI compute market is becoming increasingly diverse. Large cloud providers continue to push forward with in-house ASIC and XPU development, and the number of alternatives to NVIDIA keeps growing. In theory, new AI demand should become more evenly distributed across different architectures, rather than continuing to concentrate in the NVIDIA ecosystem. But when several recent signals are viewed together, the key question may not simply be who has compute. It may be
April 13, 2026
Key Events of the Week: What Happened In the first week of April 2026, the most important thing in the U.S. technology sector was not simply the continued flow of AI related developments. It was that the market began to read several developments together with greater clarity, even though they had initially seemed unrelated. These shifts included the long term buildout of AI infrastructure, cloud platforms responding to questions about investment returns, a redistribution of
April 5, 2026
Key Events of the Week: What Happened In the fifth week of March 2026, the most notable development in the US technology sector was not that the AI story changed direction. It was that the real world conditions needed to sustain that story became easier to recognize. These conditions include whether products can be used reliably, which platforms can control the point of entry, how companies are refocusing resources, whether infrastructure can support the pace
April 1, 2026
Executive Summary A recent remark by Groq founder Jonathan Ross raises an important question. If models begin to improve the quality of their own learning signals, then the AI growth logic we have become familiar with may no longer follow the same path of diminishing returns. This article does not ask whether Ross’s claim should be accepted at face value. It asks whether the idea behind it is already supported by a set of meaningful
March 30, 2026
Key Events of the Week: What Happened In the fourth week of March 2026, several developments in the US technology sector were worth viewing together. These events came from different areas, including AI infrastructure, platform entry points, enterprise software, organizational adjustment, supply chain bottlenecks, and policy governance. They were not identical in nature, yet together they pointed to a clearer picture. The AI industry continues to move forward, but the market is gradually shifting away
RESEARCH COLLECTION
From a small island vantage point, we explore signals in technology, business, and culture that are shaping the global future.
