Jane, Author at Small Island Research Notes

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So far Jane has created 94 blog entries.

Tech Narrative Weekly #2 (Dec 2025, Week 1): After Efficiency Comes the Era of Governance

Jane2026-02-24T17:04:10+08:00December 8th, 2025|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: AI Hardware and Chips, AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Amazon and AWS, Google, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Meta, Microsoft, Narrative and Trust, Platform and Business Model, Policy and Tariffs|

Key Events of the Week: What Happened At its annual re:Invent conference, AWS introduced a series of new services, including the Trainium 4 chip, an AI agent platform, and a cloud security framework. Together, they signal a shift from showcasing AI technology to governing AI infrastructure. At the same time, the U.S. government indicated plans to increase support for robotics, automation, and manufacturing reshoring, aiming to embed AI capabilities into the nation’s industrial and security

From TPU Sales to Governance Redistribution: Broadcom’s Role in AI Is Quietly Changing

Jane2025-12-04T12:21:03+08:00December 4th, 2025|Categories: Global Business Dynamics, Strategic Tech and Market Signals|Tags: AI Hardware and Chips, AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Amazon and AWS, Apple, Broadcom, Google, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, MediaTek, Meta, Microsoft, Narrative and Trust, NVIDIA, Platform and Business Model, TSMC|

Executive Summary Broadcom has long been one of Google’s key partners in building the TPU architecture. As Google plans to make its TPU technology available to external customers, this partnership is entering a new phase. Broadcom’s role is shifting from that of a co-designer to that of a modular integrator, serving as a stable and indispensable technical pillar within Google’s institutional framework. This position provides stability, but it also limits Broadcom’s ability to influence the

Has the Market Misread the Story? Google and NVIDIA Are Not Rivals but Accelerators for Each Other

Jane2025-12-02T15:25:18+08:00December 2nd, 2025|Categories: Featured Notes, Global Business Dynamics, Strategic Tech and Market Signals|Tags: AI Hardware and Chips, AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Google, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Narrative and Trust, NVIDIA, Platform and Business Model|

Executive Summary In recent weeks, market attention has focused on Google’s Gemini 3 and the decision to make TPU available to external users, widely interpreted as a counterattack against NVIDIA. However, the breakthroughs of Gemini 3, the evolution of TPU technology, and Google’s sales strategy are three separate narratives rather than a single causal chain. The real story lies in how Google and NVIDIA, through competition, are propelling each other forward and collaboratively reshaping the

Tech Narrative Weekly #1 (Nov 2025, Week 4): Optimism Returns, but Friction Remains

Jane2026-02-24T17:03:26+08:00December 1st, 2025|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: AI Hardware and Chips, AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Google, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Microsoft, Narrative and Trust, NVIDIA, Platform and Business Model, Policy and Tariffs|

Key Events of the Week: What Happened Last week, U.S. tech stocks rebounded noticeably. With growing expectations of a possible Fed rate cut, funding costs declined and risk appetite returned, bringing market attention back to the story of AI-driven growth. Yet beneath this surface of optimism, a new kind of anxiety has begun to emerge. Increasingly, analysts are pointing to power constraints in data centers, grid delays, and energy bottlenecks. The phrase “energy as the

How Tech Giants Manage Energy in the Age of AI

Jane2025-11-27T17:33:08+08:00November 27th, 2025|Categories: Featured Notes, Global Business Dynamics, Strategic Tech and Market Signals|Tags: AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Amazon and AWS, Apple, Foxconn, Google, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Meta, Microsoft, Narrative and Trust, OpenAI, Supply Chain and Manufacturing, Tesla|

Executive Summary The growth of AI was once imagined as limitless, but energy is becoming its most tangible boundary. As power shortages emerge as the new ceiling of computation, competition among tech giants is shifting from who owns the most GPUs to who can govern the rhythm of energy. This article examines how seven major technology companies are redefining their relationship with power: Microsoft institutionalizes energy, building a governable system through long-term contracts and nuclear

When Governance Replaces Innovation: How Google Reclaimed the Narrative in the Age of AI Demystification

Jane2025-11-25T10:31:23+08:00November 25th, 2025|Categories: Global Business Dynamics, Strategic Tech and Market Signals|Tags: AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Google, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Meta, Narrative and Trust, OpenAI, Platform and Business Model|

Executive Summary With Gemini 3, Google returned to the center of the stage, signaling a shift in the AI industry from a race of innovation to a race of governance. OpenAI, for the first time, responded defensively to Google’s progress. In contrast, Google integrated Brain and DeepMind, accelerated its decision-making rhythm, and turned AI into the organization’s core engine, demonstrating a new level of structural maturity. As model capabilities converge, the value of AI is

Why the AI Bubble May Take Longer to Burst: The Energy Narrative Is Quietly Taking the Lead

Jane2026-03-12T20:46:55+08:00November 20th, 2025|Categories: Featured Notes, Global Business Dynamics, Strategic Tech and Market Signals|Tags: AI Hardware and Chips, AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Microsoft, Narrative and Trust, NVIDIA, OpenAI, Platform and Business Model, Supply Chain and Manufacturing|

Executive Summary This article presents a central argument. The AI cycle is being rewritten, and the shift is not driven by technical breakthroughs. It is being shaped by the rise of an energy-based language and a new form of governance. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella framed AI efficiency as the number of useful tokens produced per gigawatt. This reframes performance from a discussion about GPU cost to one about energy. NVIDIA reinforced this shift through the

When AI Enters the Reasoning Era: What Meta Reveals About Governance Gaps

Jane2025-11-19T12:03:02+08:00November 18th, 2025|Categories: Featured Notes, Global Business Dynamics, Strategic Tech and Market Signals|Tags: AI Strategy and Ecosystem, DeepSeek, Google, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Meta, OpenAI, Platform and Business Model|

Executive Summary Meta enters 2025 at the center of a major shift in AI. The company has scaled back FAIR while recruiting new leadership with exceptionally high compensation. It has expanded its compute infrastructure at unprecedented speed, yet appears less steady as the industry moves into the era of reasoning. These actions may seem contradictory, but together they reveal a deeper transformation taking place across the AI landscape. As AI shifts from a competition of

The Boundary Between AI’s Bubble and Its Revolution: From Language to Understanding the World

Jane2025-11-24T11:23:02+08:00November 11th, 2025|Categories: Featured Notes, Future Scenarios and Design, Global Business Dynamics|Tags: AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Amazon and AWS, Apple, Google, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Meta, Microsoft, Narrative and Trust, NVIDIA, OpenAI, Tesla|

Executive Summary AI development now stands between the prosperity of language and the turning point of understanding. While today’s large language models demonstrate remarkable generative power, they also reveal a fundamental limitation: they excel at imitating language but have yet to truly understand the world. This growth, detached from reality, suggests that beneath the surface of prosperity, signs of a bubble are beginning to appear. From Microsoft / OpenAI, which focus on language generation, to

The Collective Belief Experiment Behind the OpenAI Boom

Jane2025-11-06T16:52:57+08:00November 6th, 2025|Categories: Global Business Dynamics, Strategic Tech and Market Signals|Tags: AI Hardware and Chips, AI Strategy and Ecosystem, Amazon and AWS, AMD, Broadcom, CoreWeave, Market Sentiment and Reflexivity, Microsoft, Narrative and Trust, NVIDIA, OpenAI, Oracle, Platform and Business Model, Supply Chain and Manufacturing|

Executive Summary Each collaboration OpenAI undertakes is more than a business transaction. It has become a focal point for global capital and industrial belief. Although the company has yet to establish a stable business model, it has already reshaped the rhythm of the global technology supply chain. This article argues that OpenAI is transforming industrial reality through reflexivity. Corporations and investors believe it can define the future, and that very belief is actively shaping the