When Can AI Software Stocks Move Off the Bottom? From Value Reset to Market Repricing

2026-07-09T10:42:23+08:00July 9th, 2026|Categories: Featured Notes, Global Business Dynamics|Tags: , , , , , |

Executive Summary For AI software stocks to move off the bottom, it is not enough to ask whether share prices have already fallen far enough. The more important question is whether the market has seen enough evidence that these companies can still create monetizable value in the AI era. This article argues that the process requires two resets and one valuation threshold. The first is a value reset. Software companies need to prove that they

Tech Narrative Weekly #29 (June 2026, Week 4 & July 2026, Week 1): AI Trust Faced a Stress Test as Market Repricing Became More Visible

2026-07-06T16:53:24+08:00July 6th, 2026|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: , , , , , , |

Key Events of the Week: What Happened From June 21 to July 4, 2026, the AI narrative in the U.S. technology industry centered mainly on five themes. Frontier AI Models Faced Clearer Government Review and Access Control On June 26, OpenAI announced the GPT-5.6 series, including its flagship model Sol, its balanced model Terra, and its lower-cost model Luna. However, this was not a broad public release. The models were first made available to a

Tech Narrative Weekly #28 (June 2026, Week 3): AI Competition Is Shifting from Compute Expansion to Control of Scarce Resources

2026-06-22T14:54:29+08:00June 22nd, 2026|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: , , , , , , |

Key Events of the Week: What Happened From June 14 to June 20, 2026, several developments emerged across the U.S. technology industry that could influence the direction of AI. The most important changes involved model export restrictions, AI company financing, corporate bond issuance, memory supply, custom chips, advanced process technology, talent shifts, and internal AI transformation. The Anthropic Model Restrictions Continued to Unfold The U.S. Department of Commerce ordered Anthropic to suspend exports of its

Tech Narrative Weekly #26 (June 2026, Week 1): AI Moves Toward Validation and Governance

2026-06-11T11:02:22+08:00June 8th, 2026|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: , , , , , , |

Key Events of the Week: What Happened From May 31 to June 6, 2026, five clusters of events stood out for their potential to influence the direction of the U.S. technology industry and AI development. The first cluster centered on AI computing moving beyond GPU expansion alone and toward a broader system architecture built around CPUs, networking, racks, personal computers, and new device categories. NVIDIA introduced RTX Spark and worked with Microsoft to bring Windows

Tech Narrative Weekly #25 (May 2026, Week 4): AI Systems Are Now Being Tested by Real-World Constraints

2026-06-11T11:03:39+08:00June 2nd, 2026|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: , , , , , , |

Key Events of the Week: What Happened From May 24 to May 30, 2026, the AI narrative in the U.S. technology industry continued the direction of the previous week, but the focus became more pronounced. The first important set of developments centered on Anthropic’s financing and compute arrangements. Anthropic completed a large financing round, with its valuation approaching $1 trillion. This showed that frontier model companies can still attract significant capital. In the same week,

Tech Narrative Weekly #24 (May 2026, Week 3): AI Competition Is Moving Toward Workable Systems

2026-06-11T11:05:00+08:00May 25th, 2026|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: , , , , , , |

Key Events of the Week: What Happened From May 17 to May 23, 2026, the most visible shift in the U.S. technology sector was that AI competition moved more clearly from model capability and infrastructure expansion toward platform entry points, agent workflows, compute architecture, and geopolitical boundaries. Google I/O stood out as the most important technology event of the week. Google introduced a broad set of updates across Gemini, AI Search, developer tools, agent-related features,

Beyond the Traditional Hardware Framework: AI Infrastructure Is Forming a New System Cycle

2026-06-11T11:06:43+08:00May 20th, 2026|Categories: Featured Notes, Global Business Dynamics, Strategic Tech and Market Signals|Tags: , , , , , , |

Executive Summary This AI infrastructure cycle may not be fully understood through the traditional framework of technology hardware cycles. First, although the market keeps discussing an AI bubble, these early bubble warnings may actually make suppliers more disciplined about capital spending and delay the point at which supply becomes excessive. Second, KV cache is changing the architecture of AI infrastructure. AI infrastructure is no longer only a question of supply and demand for individual hardware

Tech Narrative Weekly #23 (May 2026, Week 2): AI Competition Is Increasingly Becoming a System-Level Integration Game

2026-06-11T11:08:06+08:00May 18th, 2026|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: , , , , , , |

Key Events of the Week: What Happened From May 10 to May 16, 2026, the most visible signal in the U.S. technology sector was that AI competition was increasingly becoming a system-level integration game, moving beyond model capability and infrastructure expansion into enterprise deployment, platform gateways, capital structures, and geopolitical boundaries. The policy backdrop of the week was the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. From a technology industry perspective, this was not only

Tech Narrative Weekly #22 (May 2026, Week 1): The AI Story Continues, but the Market Is Looking More Closely

2026-06-11T11:11:02+08:00May 11th, 2026|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: , , , , , , |

Key Events of the Week: What Happened From May 3 to May 9, 2026, the most visible change was that model companies continued to need more compute, while their sources of compute became more diversified. The long-term cloud and chip partnership between Anthropic and Google Cloud did not simply reflect the expansion of one company. It showed that model competition is entering a stage that requires more long-term infrastructure support. If model companies want to

Tech Narrative Weekly #20 (Apr 2026, Week 2): The AI Story Has Not Changed, but the Market Is Examining It More Closely

2026-06-11T10:58:05+08:00April 20th, 2026|Categories: Tech Narrative Weekly|Tags: , , , |

Key Events of the Week: What Happened In the second week of April 2026, what stood out most in the U.S. technology sector was not simply the continued flow of AI-related news. It was the way the market began to read several developments together that had previously seemed more separate. These included whether AI infrastructure investment remained strong, whether compute supply was expanding across more routes, whether data center expansion was beginning to run into

Go to Top